A mere two months ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach berated him over missing a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were a symptom or the reason for the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. When the in-form star curled home his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to ten wins in a row , after failing to win any of their first six games, are somehow a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
This is a particularly tough query to address. History, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, while the positive results have piled up.
Per the data, in only two games has the team registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a side who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look strangely fragile – yet right now the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with rivals and wait for their star man to bail them out with some crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired in London, and again against the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club have to face as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- The winger might become the force he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential England player.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
